Volcanologists meet in Sicily to identify best practices in short-term eruption forecasting
On September 11-15, 2011, 80 volcanologists associated with volcano observatories in 27 countries gathered at the Ettore Majorana Foundation and Centre for Scientific Culture in Erice, Italy to share experiences and develop synergy in short-term forecasting of eruptions.
The meeting was conducted under the aegis of World Organization of Volcano Observatories (WOVO), sponsored by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), United States Geological Survey (USGS), United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI), and endorsed by Group on Earth Observations (GEO) and United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).
Participants reviewed globally distributed examples of successful and unsuccessful eruption forecasts and their outcomes. The group recognized that uncertainties inherent in forecasting must be clearly communicated. The circumstances of volcano observatories vary widely. However, effective monitoring, advanced preparation, and clear and timely communication between observatories and civil protection authorities were identified as keys to success.
The workshop demonstrated that sharing of experiences and practices internationally can improve the performance of observatories and increase efficiency of operations. A document reporting results of the discussions is in preparation. Future best practices workshops will address other important themes, such as long-term forecasting, instrumental monitoring and data processing, and communications.
A longer document including more detailed description of the discussed items and main conclusions from the workshop is being drafted and will be available in the next future.
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